July 6, 2007
I was poking around in the web traffic data that is built into secondtree.com, and I saw that a page I posted back in September 2004 regarding US casualties in Iraq seems to continue to get traffic. One thing that shows is that I was definitely already a data geek back then. At the time — leading up to the Presidential elections — I was curious what kind of track we were on to lose as many American troops in Iraq as we lost on 9/11. I left out non-US casualties and non-military casualties just to be conservative.
After seeing the Web traffic, I got curious as to how my projections had panned out. Unfortunately, it showed what I expected. We exceeded my projections and passed the 3,000 casualty mark early in January 2007 rather than November 2007. See the chart below.
To be clear, I’m not of the, “We should just drop everything and bail.” It’s a messy, messy, messy situation. But, there are some really smart minds who have made well-reasoned recommendations. The utter gall of the Bush administration to get the Baker-Hamilton Commission…and then pretty much ignore their recommendations is mind-boggling.